簡介：第八章人力資源規(guī)劃,CHP8HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,案例,北京桑科制造公司的營銷經(jīng)理趙旺在每周經(jīng)理例會上說“我有個好消息，我們可以與麥多德公司簽訂一大筆合同。我們所要做的就是在一年而不是兩年內(nèi)完成該計劃。我告訴過他們我們能夠做到?！?然而人力資源副經(jīng)理王林的話卻讓每個人都必須面對現(xiàn)實，她說在我看來，我們現(xiàn)有的工人并不具備按麥多德公司的標準生產(chǎn)出優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品所需要的專業(yè)知識。在原來兩年的計劃進度表中，我們曾計劃對現(xiàn)有工人逐步進行培訓，但是按現(xiàn)在這個新的時間表我們將不得不到勞動力市場上招募那些具有該方面工作經(jīng)驗的工人。或許我們有必要進一步分析一下這個方案，看看是否確實需要這么做。如果我們要在一年內(nèi)而不是兩年中完成這一計劃，人力資源成本將大幅度上升。不錯，趙經(jīng)理，我們能夠做到這一點，但是由于有些約束條件，這個計劃的效益會好嗎,假設(shè)你分別是營銷經(jīng)理、人力資源經(jīng)理、公司總經(jīng)理，面對這種情況，你的態(tài)度是什么,策之而知得失之計，作之而知動靜之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余不足之處。孫子兵法虛實,人力資源規(guī)劃（HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING）的含義,在企業(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)營規(guī)劃的指導下進行人員的供需平衡，以滿足企業(yè)在不同發(fā)展時期對人員的需求，為企業(yè)的發(fā)展提供符合質(zhì)量和數(shù)量要求的人力資源保證。EMPLOYMENTORPERSONNELPLANNINGISTHEPROCESSOFDECIDINGWHATPOSITIONSTHEFIRMWILLHAVETOFILL,ANDHOWTOFILLTHEM,概念理解1,HRP要在企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和經(jīng)營規(guī)劃的基礎(chǔ)上來進行。STRATEGICANALYSISWHATHUMANRESOURCESARENEEDEDANDWHATAREAVAILABLESTRATEGICFORMULATIONWHATISREQUIREDANDNECESSARYINSUPPORTOFHUMANRESOURCESSTRATEGICIMPLEMENTATIONHOWWILLTHEHUMANRESOURCESBEALLOCATED,CLARIFYPERFORMANCEEXPECTATIONSANDFUTUREMANAGEMENTMETHODSVALUES,GUIDINGPRINCIPLESBUSINESSMISSIONOBJECTIVESANDPRIORITIESRESOURCEALLOCATIONS,IDENTIFYPEOPLERELATEDBUSINESSISSUES,DEFINEHRSTRATEGIES,OBJECTIVES,ANDACTIONPLANS,IMPLEMENTHRPROCESSES,POLICIESANDPRACTICES,IMPLEMENTPROCESSESTOACHIEVEDESIREDRESULTSBUSINESSGOALSCOMPANYSTRENGTHS/WEAKNESSESEXTERNALOPPORTUNITIES/THREATSSOURCEOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE,ESTABLISHTHECONTEXTBUSINESSGOALSCOMPANYSTRENGTHS/WEAKNESSESEXTERNALOPPORTUNITIES/THREATSSOURCEOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE,STRATEGICANALYSIS,STRATEGYFORMULATION,STRATEGYIMPLEMENTATION,,,,,,,,LINKINGTHEPROCESSESOFHRPANDSTRATEGICPLANNING,,,,ENSURINGTHEFITBETWEENHRANDSTRATEGY,EXTERNALFITOREXTERNALALIGNMENTFOCUSESONTHECONNECTIONBETWEENTHEBUSINESSOBJECTIVESANDTHEMAJORINITIATIVESINHRINTERNALFITORINTERNALALIGNMENTALIGNINGHRPRACTICESWITHONEANOTHERTOESTABLISHACONFIGURATIONTHATISMUTUALLYREINFORCING,REMINDERORGANIZATIONSTRATEGYMODEL,概念理解2,HRP包括對企業(yè)特定時期內(nèi)的人員供給和需求進行預(yù)測、根據(jù)預(yù)測的結(jié)果采取相應(yīng)的措施進行供需平衡。HRP對企業(yè)人力資源供給和需求的預(yù)測要從數(shù)量和質(zhì)量這兩個方面來進行。,RESULTSOFINADEQUATEHRPLANNING,VACANTPOSITIONSCREATECOSTLYINEFFICIENCIESOVERTIMEHOURSATPREMIUMCOSTSIMULTANEOUSLAYOFFSANDHIRINGMASSLAYOFFSREQUIRINGSEVERANCEPAYEXTENDEDNOTICEPERIODSINEFFECTIVETRAINING,DEVELOPMENT,CAREERPLANNINGTURNOVEROFHIGHPERFORMERSPROBLEMSWITHEMPLOYMENTEQUITYGOALSINABILITYTOMEETOPERATIONALANDSTRATEGICPLANS,PURPOSEOFHRP,HRP’SPURPOSEISTHEEFFECTIVEDEPLOYMENTOFHUMANRESOURCESTHROUGHANTICIPATINGORGANIZATIONALLABORSUPPLYANDDEMANDPROVIDINGEXPANDEDEMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIESGUIDINGTHEDEVELOPMENTANDTRAININGTHEWORKFORCE,人力資源規(guī)劃的內(nèi)容,COMPREHENSIVENESSOFPLANNING“PLANBASEDHRP”ISPARTOFORGANIZATION’SBUSINESSPLANNINGHRPFORSPECIALPROJECTSPLANNEDORUNPLANNEDNEEDS,,ASSIGNMENTPLAN,HRP的意義和作用,有助于企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的制定有助于企業(yè)保持人員狀況的穩(wěn)定有助于企業(yè)降低人工成本的開支對HRM的其他職能具有指導意義,RELATIONSHIPS,人力資源規(guī)劃的程序,人力資源規(guī)劃的程序,IMPLEMENTTHEBALANCEABLEPLAN,HRPANDENVIRONMENTALSCANNING,ENVIRONMENTALSCANNINGTHESYSTEMATICMONITORINGOFTHEMAJOREXTERNALFORCESINFLUENCINGTHEORGANIZATIONECONOMICFACTORSGENERALANDREGIONALCONDITIONSCOMPETITIVETRENDSNEWPROCESSES,SERVICES,ANDINNOVATIONSTECHNOLOGICALCHANGESROBOTICSANDOFFICEAUTOMATIONPOLITICALANDLEGISLATIVEISSUESLAWSANDADMINISTRATIVERULINGSSOCIALCONCERNSCHILDCAREANDEDUCATIONALPRIORITIESDEMOGRAPHICTRENDSAGE,COMPOSITION,ANDLITERACY,SCANNINGTHEINTERNALENVIRONMENT,CULTURALAUDITSAUDITSOFTHECULTUREANDQUALITYOFWORKLIFEINANORGANIZATIONHOWDOEMPLOYEESSPENDTHEIRTIMEHOWDOTHEYINTERACTWITHEACHOTHERAREEMPLOYEESEMPOWEREDWHATISTHEPREDOMINANTLEADERSHIPSTYLEOFMANAGERSHOWDOEMPLOYEESADVANCEWITHINTHEORGANIZATIONBENCHMARKINGTHEPROCESSOFCOMPARINGTHEORGANIZATION’SPROCESSESANDPRACTICESWITHTHOSEOFOTHERCOMPANIES,FORECASTINGDEMAND,CONSIDERATIONSPRODUCT/SERVICEDEMANDTECHNOLOGYFINANCIALRESOURCESABSENTEEISM/TURNOVERORGANIZATIONALGROWTHMANAGEMENTPHILOSOPHY,TECHNIQUESTRENDANALYSISMANAGERIALESTIMATESDELPHITECHNIQUE,TECHNIQUESSTAFFINGTABLESMARKOVANALYSISSKILLSINVENTORIESMANAGEMENTINVENTORIESREPLACEMENTCHARTSSUCCESSIONPLANNING,EXTERNALCONSIDERATIONSDEMOGRAPHICCHANGESEDUCATIONOFTHEWORKFORCELABORMOBILITYGOVERNMENTPOLICIESUNEMPLOYMENTRATE,FORECASTINGSUPPLY,BALANCINGSUPPLYANDDEMAND,SHORTAGERECRUITMENTFULLTIMEPARTTIMERECALLS,SURPLUSREDUCTIONSLAYOFFSTERMINATIONSDEMOTIONSRETIREMENTS,,,人力資源需求的預(yù)測FORECASTINGPERSONNELNEEDS,人力資源需求的分析STRATEGYANDPLANSPRODUCTANDSERVICEDEMANDPROJECTEDTURNOVERQUALITYANDSKILLSOFYOUREMPLOYEESSTRATEGICDECISIONSTOUPGRADETHEQUALITYOFPRODUCTSORSERVICESORENTERINTONEWMARKETSTECHNOLOGICALANDOTHERCHANGESRESULTINGININCREASEDPRODUCTIVITYTHEFINANCIALRESOURCEAVAILABLETOYOURDEPARTMENTWORKLOADOFAPOSITIONEFFICIENCYCHANGING,,人力資源需求預(yù)測的方法主觀判斷法MANAGERIALESTIMATEMANAGEMENTFORECASTSARETHEOPINIONSJUDGMENTSOFSUPERVISORS,DEPARTMENTMANAGERS,EXPERTS,OROTHERSKNOWLEDGEABLEABOUTTHEORGANIZATION’SFUTUREEMPLOYMENTNEEDS德爾菲法DELPHITECHNIQUETHEDELPHITECHNIQUEISAMETHODFOROBTAININGFORECASTSFROMAPANELOFINDEPENDENTEXPERTSOVERTWOORMOREROUNDS,差距,,德爾菲法的特征匿名性多次有控制的反饋綜合性德爾菲法的步驟確定預(yù)測題目，選定專家小組；設(shè)計調(diào)查表，準備有關(guān)材料；征詢專家初次判斷意見；綜合整理收回的各位專家初次判斷意見，作出定量化的歸納，加以必要說明。并反饋給各位專家，請他們再次思考，提出判斷意見；經(jīng)過反復征詢意見后，做出預(yù)測值。,,德爾菲法的優(yōu)點（1）各專家能夠在不受干擾的情況下，獨立、充分地表明自己的意見；（2）預(yù)測值是根據(jù)各位專家的意見綜合而成的，能夠發(fā)揮集體的智慧；（3）應(yīng)用面比較廣，費用比較節(jié)省。德爾菲法的缺點在綜合預(yù)測值時，僅僅是根據(jù)各專家的主觀判斷，缺乏客觀標準，而且顯得強求一致。,趨勢預(yù)測法TRENDANALYSISTHESTUDYOFAFIRM’SPASTEMPLOYMENTNEEDSOVERAPERIODOFYEARSTOPREDICTFUTURENEEDS回歸分析REGRESSIONANALYSIS比率預(yù)測法RATIOANALYSISAFORECASTINGTECHNIQUEFORDETERMININGFUTURESTAFFNEEDSBYUSINGRATIOSBETWEENACAUSALFACTORANDTHENUMBEROFEMPLOYEESNEEDEDASSUMESTHATTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHECAUSALFACTORANDSTAFFINGNEEDSISCONSTANT,,趨勢預(yù)測法例題某公司過去8年人員的數(shù)據(jù)如下，請預(yù)測今后第二年和第四年人力資源的需求是多少,趨勢線可以表示為,AB的確定根據(jù)最小平方法,,這樣就可以預(yù)測出今后第二年和第四年的人力資源需求為,,,RATIOANALYSIS比率分析,,PATIENTS病人100NURSES護士25PATIENT病人/NURSE護士RATIO比率4/1,IFTHEREARE315PATIENTS,HOWMANYNURSESARENEEDED如果有315個病人，需要多少護士,人力資源供給的預(yù)測FORECASTINGPERSONNELSUPPLY,FORECASTINGTHESUPPLYOFOUTSIDECANDIDATESFACTORSIMPACTINGTHESUPPLYOFOUTSIDECANDIDATESGENERALECONOMICCONDITIONSLABORMARKETSEXPECTEDUNEMPLOYMENTRATEATTRACTIONOFENTERPRISEATTITUDETOWARDJOB,,FORECASTINGTHESUPPLYOFINSIDECANDIDATES現(xiàn)有人力資源的分析人力資源自身的自然變化（退休、生育），主要是對年齡、性別、身體狀況等等進行分析。人員流動的分析（重要前提假定人員的質(zhì)量不發(fā)生變化）人員由企業(yè)流出人員在企業(yè)內(nèi)部流動,,人員的質(zhì)量分析（假定人員沒有發(fā)生流動）顯性原因如工資的增加技能的培訓隱形原因加班加點工作分享、縮短工作時間,人力資源供給預(yù)測的方法,SKILLINVENTORIESREPLACEMENTCHARTSMARKOVANALYSIS,INTERNALSUPPLYFORECASTINGTOOLS,SKILLINVENTORIESFILESOFPERSONNELEDUCATION,EXPERIENCE,INTERESTS,SKILLS,ETC,THATALLOWMANAGERSTOQUICKLYMATCHJOBOPENINGSWITHEMPLOYEEBACKGROUNDS,,PERSONNELREPLACEMENTCHARTSCOMPANYRECORDSSHOWINGPRESENTPERFORMANCEANDPROMOTABILITYOFINSIDECANDIDATESFORTHEMOSTIMPORTANTPOSITIONS,,,FIGURE46,,人力資源水池模型,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12,3,4,23,,,,1,23,36,9,60,27,90,36,,,職位層次,,,A,B,,將提升到上一層次,,外部,招聘,,將提升到本層次,,退休＋辭職,（提升受阻）,A現(xiàn)有人員B可提升人員,,,,,,調(diào)入6人,現(xiàn)有30人,,調(diào)出和離職10人,未來供給28人,調(diào)入6人,現(xiàn)有50人,調(diào)出和離職12人,未來供給40人,,晉升5人,,降職3人,,晉升8人,降職3人,,降職4人,,內(nèi)部供給總量115人,,馬爾科夫模型是用來預(yù)測等時間間隔點上（一般為1年）各類人員分布狀況的一種動態(tài)預(yù)測技術(shù)。MARKOVANALYSISSHOWSTHEPERCENTAGEANDACTUALNUMBEROFEMPLOYEESWHOREMAININEACHJOBFROMONEYEARTOTHENEXT,ASWELLASTHEPROPORTIONSOFTHOSEWHOAREPROMOTED,TRANSFERRED,OREXITTHEORGANIZATION,,,,,,,,,某類人員的轉(zhuǎn)移率（P）,本類人員原有數(shù)量,轉(zhuǎn)移出本類人員數(shù)量,,,例題1已知三類人員的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和現(xiàn)在三類人員分布狀況，如果每年向第一類補充80人，求未來人力資源供給分布狀況。,,,,,已知人員轉(zhuǎn)移率P，T＝0時人員分布情況，每年向A類補充人數(shù)80人根據(jù)馬爾可夫計算公式可知，某類人員在T時刻的供給量N＝該類人員總數(shù)留存率＋補充人數(shù)其中，補充人數(shù)下類人員總數(shù)晉升率＋該類招聘人數(shù)＋上類人員總數(shù)降職率,列表預(yù)測2007－2010年三類人員供給情況,例題2假設(shè)某企業(yè)有四類職位，從高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各類人員的分布情況如下表，請預(yù)測一下未來人員的分布。,,,,解,BALANCINGDEMANDANDSUPPLYOFHR人力資源供需的平衡,DEALINGWITHANOVERSUPPLYOFPERSONNEL人員供給過剩處理,FREEZEHIRING凍結(jié)雇傭RESTRICTOVERTIME限制超時RETRAIN/REDEPLOY重新培訓/調(diào)動SWITCHTOPARTTIMEEMPLOYEES轉(zhuǎn)成兼職員工USEUNPAIDVACATIONS采用無薪休假,USEASHORTERWORKWEEK采用縮短的工作周USEPAYREDUCTIONS采用減少工資USESABBATICALS采用周期性休息ENCOURAGEEARLYRETIREMENTS鼓勵提前退休,,HIREADDITIONALWORKERS雇傭另外的工人IMPROVEPRODUCTIVITYTHROUGHTRAINING通過培訓提高生產(chǎn)力USEOVERTIME采用超時ADDADDITIONALSHIFTS增加另外的班次,REASSIGNJOBS重新分配工作USETEMPORARYWORKERS使用短期工人IMPROVERETENTION改善留置率,,DEALINGWITHANUNDERSUPPLYOFPERSONNEL人員供給不足處理,HUMANRESOURCEPLANNINGPROCESSEXTERNALENVIRONMENTINTERNALENVIRONMENT,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STRATEGICPLANNING,HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,FORECASTINGHUMANRESOURCEREQUIREMENTS,,COMPARINGREQUIREMENTSANDAVAILABILITY,FORECASTINGHUMANRESOURCEAVAILABILITY,SURPLUSOFWORKERS,DEMANDSUPPLY,NOACTION,RESTRICTEDHIRING,REDUCEDHOURS,EARLYRETIREMENT,LAYOFF,DOWNSIZING,SHORTAGEOFWORKERS,RECRUITMENT,SELECTION,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,HUMANRESOURCESPLANNINGMODEL,,EMPLOYMENTFORECASTING,,SUPPLYANALYSIS,BALANCESUPPLYANDDEMAND,,LEADSTO,RESULTINGIN,CONSIDERATIONS,INTERNAL,RECRUITMENT,FULLTIMEPARTTIMERECALLS,REDUCTIONS,TERMINATIONSLAYOFFSDEMOTIONSRETIREMENT,STAFFINGTABLESMARKOVANALYSISSKILLSINVENTORIESMANAGEMENTINVENTORIESREPLACEMENTCHARTSSUCCESSIONPLANNING,PRODUCT/SERVICEECONOMICSTECHNOLOGYFINANCIALRESOURCESABSENTEEISM/TURNOVERGROWTHMANAGEMENTPHILOSOPHY,TECHNIQUES,TRENDANALYSISMANAGERIALESTIMATEDELPHITECHNIQUE,EXTERNAL,DEMOGRAPHICCHANGESEDUCATIONOFWORKFORCELABORMOBILITYGOVERNMENTALPOLICIESUNEMPLOYMENTRATE,
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